From Assassination Attempts to ICE Attacks: Political Violence Is Back in the Headlines

In just over a year, the U.S. has witnessed a string of high-profile incidents:

• Two attempts on President Donald Trump’s life — one at a Butler, Pennsylvania rally on July 13, 2024 (Trump grazed in the ear; one attendee killed, two critically injured) and a second plot foiled on a Florida golf course on Sept. 15, 2024 (suspect Ryan Routh convicted in Sept. 2025).

• The assassination of conservative activist Charlie Kirk during a Utah Valley University event on Sept. 10, 2025 (university has launched an independent security review).

• This week’s rooftop sniper attack on a Dallas ICE field office, where a gunman fired at the building and a detainee transport, killing one detainee and critically injuring two others before dying by suicide. DHS has announced heightened security at ICE facilities nationwide.

Federal facilities, political figures, and even campus events are turning into flashpoints. Independent datasets (CSIS, ACLED) show politically motivated violence persists in the U.S., with the mix of ideologies shifting over time.

In the full Fraywire+ Political Violence Brief:

• A clear timeline of major incidents (2024–2025)

• A forward-looking “risk heatmap” for 2026 built from official bulletins and independent datasets

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The Brief: What the Data Actually Shows

1) The Four Headline Incidents